Business
A central bank digital euro could save the eurozone – here’s how
Published
2 years agoon
![](https://headline.ae/wp-content/uploads/Digital-Euro.jpg)
The European Central Bank and its counterparts in the UK, US, China and India are exploring a new form of state-backed money built on similar online ledger technology to cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin and ethereum.
So-called central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) envision a future where we’ll all have our own digital wallets and transfer money between them at the touch of a button, with no need for high-street banks to be involved because it all happens on a blockchain.
But CBDCs also present an opportunity that has gone unnoticed – to vastly reduce the exorbitant levels of public debt weighing down many countries. Let us explain.
The idea behind CBDCs is that individuals and firms would be issued with digital wallets by their central bank with which to make payments, pay taxes and buy shares or other securities. Whereas with today’s bank accounts, there is always the outside possibility that customers are unable to withdraw money because of a bank run, that can’t happen with CBDCs because all deposits would be 100% backed by reserves.
Today’s retail banks are required to keep little or no deposits in reserve, though they do have to hold a proportion of their capital (meaning easily sold assets) as protection in case their lending books run into trouble. For example, eurozone banks’ minimum requirement is 15.1%, meaning if they have capital of €1 billion (£852 million), their lending book cannot exceed €6.6 billion (that’s 6.6 times deposits).
In an era of CBDCs, we assume that people will still have bank accounts – to have their money invested by a fund manager, for instance, or to make a return by having it loaned out to someone else on the first person’s behalf. Our idea is that the 100% reserve protection in central bank wallets should extend to these retail bank accounts.
That would mean that if a person put 1,000 digital euros into a retail bank account, the bank could not multiply that deposit by opening more accounts than they could pay upon request. The bank would have to make money from its other services instead.
At present, the ECB holds about 25% of EU members’ government debt. Imagine that after transitioning to a digital euro, it decided to increase this holding to 30% by buying new sovereign bonds issued by member states.
This is essentially because QE drives up the value of bonds and other assets, and as a result, retail banks are more willing to lend to people and firms. This increase in the money supply is why QE can cause inflation.
If there was a 100% reserve requirement on retail banks, however, you wouldn’t get this multiplication effect. The money created by the ECB would be that amount and nothing more. Consequently, QE would be much less inflationary than today.
The debt benefit
So where does national debt fit in? The high national debt levels in many countries are predominantly the result of the global financial crisis of 2007-09, the eurozone crisis of the 2010s and the COVID pandemic. In the eurozone, countries with very high debt as a proportion of GDP include Belgium (100%), France (99%), Spain (96%), Portugal (119%), Italy (133%) and Greece (174%).
One way to deal with high debt is to create a lot of inflation to make the value of the debt smaller, but that also makes citizens poorer and is liable to eventually cause unrest. But by taking advantage of the shift to CBDCs to change the rules around retail bank reserves, governments can go a different route.
The opportunity is during the transition phase, by reversing the process in which creating money to buy bonds adds three times as much money to the real economy. By selling bonds in exchange for today’s euros, every one euro removed by the central bank leads to three disappearing from the economy.
Indeed, this is how digital euros would be introduced into the economy. The ECB would gradually sell sovereign bonds to take the old euros out of circulation, while creating new digital euros to buy bonds back again. Because the 100% reserve requirement only applies to the new euros, selling bonds worth €5 million euros takes €15 million out of the economy but buying bonds for the same amount only adds €5 million to the economy.
However, you wouldn’t just buy the same amount of bonds as you sold. Because the multiplier doesn’t apply to the bonds being bought, you can triple the amount of purchases and the total amount of money in the economy stays the same – in other words, there’s no extra inflation.
For example, the ECB could increase its holdings of sovereign debt of EU member states from 25% to 75%. Unlike the sovereign bonds in private hands, member states don’t have to pay interest to the ECB on such bonds. So EU taxpayers would now only need to pay interest on 25% of their bonds rather than the 75% on which they are paying interest now.
Interest rates and other questions
An added reason for doing this is interest rates. While interest rates payable on bonds have been meagre for years, they could hugely increase on future issuances due to inflationary pressures and central banks beginning to raise short-term interest rates in response. The chart below shows how the yields (meaning rates of interest) on the closely watched 10-year sovereign bonds for Spain, Greece, Italy and Portugal have already increased between three and fivefold in the past few months.
Following several years of immense shocks from the pandemic, the energy crisis and war emergency, there’s a risk that the markets start to think that Europe’s most indebted countries can’t cover their debts. This could lead to widespread bond selling and push interest rates up to unmanageable levels. In other words, our approach might even save the eurozone.
The ECB could indeed achieve all this without introducing a digital euro, simply by imposing a tougher reserve requirement within the current system. But by moving to a CBDC, there is a strong argument that because it’s safer than bank deposits, retail banks should have to guarantee that safety by following a 100% reserve rule.
Note that we can only take this medicine once, however. As a result, EU states will still have to be disciplined about their budgets.
Instead of completely ending fractional reserve banking in this way, there’s also a halfway house where you make reserve requirements more stringent (say a 50% rule) and enjoy a reduced version of the benefits from our proposed system. Alternatively, after the CBDC transition ends, the reserve requirement could be progressively relaxed to stimulate the economy, subject to GDP growth, inflation and so on.
What if other central banks do not take the same approach? Certainly, some coordination would help to minimise disruption, but reserve requirements do differ between countries today without significant problems. Also, many countries would probably be tempted to take the same approach. For example, the Bank of England holds over one-third of British government debt, and UK public debt as a proportion of GDP currently stands at 95%.
The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Copyright © 2010–2022, The Conversation Trust (UK) Limited
Journalist for 25 years with leading publications in India and UAE such as The National, Mumbai Mirror, DNA, Indian Express and former Sports Editor of eIndia.com. Now managing editor of Headline.ae, part of MEMc (https://www.memc.co)
Announcements
UAE sends 90 metric tons of urgent relief supplies to Sudan
Published
5 days agoon
September 3, 2024By
SudhashreeOn the directions of Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice-President, Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai, the Dubai Humanitarian (DXB-H) has facilitated urgent relief supplies to Chad’s capital, Ndjamena, to support over 70,000 Sudanese people, alleviating their suffering and safeguarding lives in the region.
In a swift response to the escalating humanitarian crisis, a Boeing 747 cargo flight departed from Al Maktoum International Airport on Saturday, August 31, at 9:00 am carrying 90 metric tonnes of essential medical supplies, shelter materials, and relief items provided by the World Health Organisation (WHO) and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). These critical resources are expected to support over 70,000 Sudanese people, alleviating their suffering and safeguarding lives in the region.
Announcements
Global Village announces opening date for Season 29
Published
5 days agoon
September 3, 2024By
SudhashreeSeason 29 of Global Village will kick off on October 16, 2024, the outdoor destination announced. The season will run until May 11, 2025. The popular destination remains closed during the summer months. This year, Global Village is expanding its offerings, featuring more cultural representations, never-before-seen entertainment, and exciting infrastructure upgrades.
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C_Z2t2cNI40/?igsh=MTh1c3NvdGlqZW9yOQ%3D%3D
Visitors to the family-friendly destination can experience a diverse range of performances, shopping, and dining experiences from cultures around the world.
Opening more than 25 years ago, the destination set a new record of over 10 million visitors in its 28th season, the longest season to date, hosting 27 pavilions representing over 90 cultures from around the globe, as well as 3,500 shopping outlets and 250 dining options.
The destination is expecting millions of visitors from around the globe to gather for the park’s attractions during the upcoming season.
Announcements
Gaming meets speed: Ferrari launches first-ever esports arena in Abu Dhabi
Published
1 week agoon
September 1, 2024By
SudhashreeFerrari World Yas Island, Abu Dhabi’s acclaimed Ferrari-themed park, has once again redefined entertainment by launching the world’s first Ferrari-themed Esports Arena. This state-of-the-art venue is set to become the go-to destination for racing enthusiasts, Formula 1 aficionados, and thrill-seekers alike.
The newly unveiled Ferrari World Esports Arena features an impressive lineup of 20 Gran Turismo simulators, thoughtfully designed to cater to a broad audience. Fourteen simulators are dedicated to adult racers, while six are specifically designed for younger guests, creating a family-friendly atmosphere that welcomes visitors of all ages.
The arena also includes three specialised F1 simulators, offering participants the exhilarating experience of sitting in the driver’s seat of a Ferrari race car and racing on legendary F1 Grand Prix circuits, including the Yas Marina Circuit. Open daily from 10am to 6pm, the Ferrari World Esports Arena offers access to the Gran Turismo simulators as part of the theme park ticket until the end of the year. The exclusive F1 simulators are available for an additional fee, starting from Dh60 per race.