As tensions between Israel and Iran intensify, now with the US involved, experts say the impact could soon be felt far beyond, hitting your wallet in the form of rising fuel, food, and living costs.

Oil prices are already climbing, and economists warn there’s more to come.

Why Oil Prices Are Rising

The Middle East is home to some of the world’s biggest oil producers, and any conflict in the region quickly rattles global markets. Following the US bombing of Iranian nuclear sites, oil prices jumped 3 per cent, and further escalation could push prices well past $100 per barrel, according to experts.

If the Strait of Hormuz shuts down, the supply will be disrupted, and oil prices could spike.

About 20 per cent of the world’s oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and if it closes, it will send shockwaves across energy markets and supply chains.

What This Means for Everyday People

Higher oil prices affect much more than just what you pay at the pump. Here’s how:

• Fuel and energy costs: Expect higher prices for petrol, electricity, and cooking gas.
• Food and goods: Rising transport and production costs lead to more expensive groceries, clothing, and everyday items.
• Government budgets: Countries that subsidise fuel, like Indonesia and India, could face serious pressure on public spending.

Who’s Most at Risk?

Countries in Asia and some European nations are vulnerable because they rely heavily on oil imports from the Middle East. India, for example, imports around 85 per cent of its crude oil, while Indonesia brings in about 60 per cent. Countries like Thailand and the Philippines also depend on Gulf oil.

If oil prices increase by $10–20 per barrel and stay high:

• India’s oil import bill could grow by $30–40 billion annually
• Indonesia could face cuts to welfare and infrastructure spending
• Some governments may have to choose between fighting inflation or keeping currencies stable

Are There Any Alternatives?

Not really, not in the short term. Oil reserves might provide a short-term buffer, but they won’t last long.

Without substitutes, prices will need to rise to reduce demand, meaning households and businesses will feel the pinch.

The growing conflict in the Middle East could soon mean:

• Higher fuel and electricity bills
• More expensive groceries and goods
• Pressure on government subsidies and spending

Airlines, including Air India, IndiGo, SpiceJet, and Akasa Air, have announced full refunds and rescheduling waivers for passengers affected by flight disruptions across several Indian cities, a move that has impacted thousands of UAE-based Indian travellers.

In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Air India said it is experiencing high call volumes due to the disruptions but assured passengers that full refunds and a one-time waiver on rescheduling fees are available for impacted flights booked until May 10, 2025.

“For customers whose flights are impacted by the current disruptions, Air India is offering a full refund for cancellations and a one-time waiver on rescheduling fees,” said the airline, which operates daily flights between the UAE and Indian cities like Delhi, Amritsar, and Srinagar.

The airline is also offering extended flexibility for some categories of travellers, including those holding concessionary fares, allowing full refunds on cancellations and waived change fees for travel booked through May 31, with changes allowed up to June 30.

IndiGo, another major budget carrier serving UAE-India routes, confirmed disruptions to and from Srinagar, Jammu, Amritsar, Leh, Chandigarh, and Dharamsala, citing changing airspace conditions. The airline is offering a full waiver of change and cancellation fees for travel to or from Srinagar until May 22, for bookings made before April 22.

SpiceJet and Akasa Air also issued advisories, with SpiceJet suspending flights to and from key northern Indian destinations “until further notice.”

What UAE Travellers Should Do

• Check with your airline for the latest updates on cancelled or rescheduled flights.
• Passengers can claim full refunds or reschedule without penalty on eligible flights.
• Travellers are encouraged to use online refund forms or contact airline service centres, though delays are expected due to high demand.
• Residents flying to India for the summer break or upcoming school holidays should verify their itineraries if flying to affected cities.

With the UAE being home to a large Indian expat community, the airline advisories are expected to impact many family travel plans.

In a bold move to strengthen its presence in the UAE, India’s popular budget airline, IndiGo, is launching daily direct flights from Mumbai and Kannur to Fujairah, starting May 16. This marks Fujairah as IndiGo’s fifth destination in the UAE, joining the airline’s already popular routes to Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Sharjah, and Ras Al Khaimah.

Along with the new flights, IndiGo is introducing dedicated shuttle bus services to connect Fujairah with the Emirates of Dubai and Sharjah, allowing travellers to explore multiple destinations from a single entry point.

Enhanced Connectivity

This new addition brings IndiGo’s weekly flights between India and the UAE to a total of 275. The airline will operate:

• 14 weekly flights to Fujairah
• 21 weekly flights to Ras Al Khaimah
• 28 weekly flights to Sharjah
• 104 weekly flights to Abu Dhabi
• 108 weekly flights to Dubai

IndiGo has carefully coordinated flight schedules to align with bus transfers, ensuring smooth connections for passengers traveling across the Emirates.

Regional Expansion

The airline’s growing footprint in the UAE reflects its ambition to offer affordable travel options across the region. With more than 90 destinations within India and 132 worldwide.