The UAE could experience hotter-than-normal and wetter-than-normal weather in the coming months as El Niño conditions strengthen across the tropical Pacific Ocean, according to the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM).

In its latest seasonal outlook, the NCM said there is a 98 per cent probability of El Nino conditions continuing between July and November 2026, with temperatures and rainfall across the UAE expected to range from near-average to above-average levels.

The forecast is based on conditions in the Nino 3.4 region of the tropical Pacific Ocean, a key climate indicator used by meteorologists worldwide. The latest sea surface temperature anomaly in the region is 0.5°C above normal, officially placing it within El Nino territory.

What is El Nino?

El Nino is a natural climate pattern caused by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. Although it occurs thousands of kilometres away, it can influence weather systems across the globe, including the UAE and other countries in the region.

Historically, El Nino events have been associated with higher temperatures, increased humidity, heavier rainfall in some regions, and more extreme weather patterns worldwide.

What could it mean for the UAE?

While the UAE is not among the regions most severely impacted by El Nino, forecasters say residents could see:

• Higher-than-normal temperatures
• Increased humidity levels
• Greater chances of rainfall compared to seasonal averages
• More variable weather patterns during the second half of the year

The NCM stressed that climate conditions are continuously monitored and forecasts will be updated monthly based on the latest international weather models and observations.

For now, residents should prepare for a potentially hotter and more humid summer as the climate phenomenon strengthens.

Residents across the UAE can expect dusty skies, strong winds and soaring temperatures today as weather conditions become increasingly hot and unsettled.

The National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) has forecast generally fair weather, but warned that strengthening winds could trigger blowing dust and sand in several areas, reducing visibility and creating challenging driving conditions.

Dust and strong winds expected

Light to moderate southwesterly to northwesterly winds are forecast to strengthen throughout the day, reaching speeds of up to 40km/h.

The NCM has advised motorists to drive carefully in dusty conditions and urged residents to keep windows and doors closed to limit dust entering homes and workplaces.

Temperatures near 47°C

Temperatures will remain high across the country, particularly in inland areas where highs are expected to range between 42°C and 47°C.

Forecast highs include:

• Dubai: 39°C
• Abu Dhabi: 40°C
• Sharjah: 41°C
• Al Ain: 44°C
• Fujairah: 44°C
• Ras Al Khaimah: 43°C
• Liwa: 44°C

Rough seas

While conditions in the Oman Sea are expected to remain relatively calm, the Arabian Gulf is forecast to become moderate to rough, with offshore waves reaching up to six feet.

Residents planning beach trips or marine activities, particularly along the western coastline, are advised to monitor conditions and exercise caution.

Warm and windy week

The latest forecast signals the start of a warmer and windier spell across the UAE, with dusty conditions likely to persist in exposed areas as summer temperatures continue to rise.

Authorities are advising residents to stay hydrated, avoid prolonged exposure to direct sunlight during peak afternoon hours and follow official weather updates throughout the week.

Residents across the UAE are in for another hot summer day, with temperatures expected to climb as high as 47°C in some parts of the country, according to the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM).

The highest temperatures are forecast in parts of Abu Dhabi, where Al Quaa, Gasyoura and Mezaira are expected to experience sweltering conditions reaching 47°C during the afternoon.

While inland regions face the most intense heat, major cities are likely to see slightly milder temperatures. Dubai and Abu Dhabi are both forecast to reach daytime highs of around 39°C, with conditions remaining hot and humid throughout much of the day.

Relief is expected after sunset, with overnight temperatures dropping to approximately 30°C in Dubai and 29°C in Abu Dhabi.

Dusty conditions expected

Forecasters have also warned of fresh winds developing at times throughout the day.

Southwesterly to northwesterly winds are expected to blow at speeds between 10 and 25 km/h, occasionally strengthening to around 40 km/h. These gusts could trigger blowing dust and sand in exposed areas, potentially affecting visibility in some locations.

Motorists travelling through open desert routes are advised to exercise caution and stay updated on weather conditions throughout the day.

Alert for rough seas

In addition to the heat, the NCM has issued a yellow weather alert for rough sea conditions.

The warning applies to parts of the Arabian Gulf, where strong winds are expected to generate rough waters through Thursday afternoon. The alert remains in effect until 4pm on June 4.

Meanwhile, conditions in the Oman Sea are expected to remain relatively calm, with slight wave activity forecast.

Summer conditions intensify

The latest forecast reflects the UAE’s typical early summer weather pattern, characterised by soaring daytime temperatures, dry conditions and occasional dusty winds.

Authorities continue to advise residents to stay hydrated, limit outdoor activities during peak afternoon hours and take extra precautions when spending extended periods in the sun.

Beachgoers, fishermen and recreational boat users are also encouraged to monitor official marine forecasts and heed weather advisories before heading out to sea.

With temperatures nearing 50°C in some areas, the UAE’s summer season is now firmly underway.