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Ocean System Trouble Could Cause Weather Chaos, Study Says

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An abrupt shutdown of Atlantic Ocean currents that could put large parts of Europe in a deep freeze is looking a bit more likely and closer than before as a new complex computer simulation finds a ‘cliff-like’ tipping point looming in the future.

A long-worried nightmare scenario, triggered by Greenland’s ice sheet melting from global warming, still is at least decades away if not longer, but maybe not the centuries that it once seemed, a new study in Friday’s Science Advances finds. The study, the first to use complex simulations and include multiple factors, uses a key measurement to track the strength of vital overall ocean circulation, which is slowing.

A collapse of the current – called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or AMOC – would change weather worldwide because it means a shutdown of one of key the climate and ocean forces of the planet. It would plunge northwestern European temperatures by 5 to 15 degrees Celsius over the decades, extend Arctic ice much farther south, turn up the heat even more in the Southern Hemisphere, change global rainfall patterns and disrupt the Amazon, the study said. Other scientists said it would be a catastrophe that could cause worldwide food and water shortages.

‘We are moving closer (to the collapse), but we we’re not sure how much closer,’ said study lead author Rene van Westen, a climate scientist and oceanographer at Utrecht University in the Netherlands. ‘We are heading towards a tipping point.’

When this global weather calamity – grossly fictionalized in the movie The Day After Tomorrow – may happen is ‘the million-dollar question, which we unfortunately can’t answer at the moment,’ van Westen said. He said it’s likely a century away but still could happen in his lifetime. He just turned 30.

Sunrise over the Atlantic Ocean in Virginia Beach, USA. (Photo: Diaa Bekheet). A study found that the world's oceans were warmer in 2019 than at any point in recorded human history. FILE – Sunrise over the Atlantic Ocean in Virginia Beach, Virginia, in 2019. (Diaa Bekheet/VOA)

‘It also depends on the rate of climate change we are inducing as humanity,’ van Westen said.

Studies have shown the AMOC to be slowing, but the issue is about a complete collapse or shutdown. The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is a group of hundreds of scientists that gives regular authoritative updates on warming, said it has medium confidence that there will not be a collapse before 2100 and generally downplayed disaster scenarios. But van Westen, several outside scientists and a study last year say that may not be right.

Stefan Rahmstorf, head of Earth Systems Analysis at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research in Germany, was not part of the research, but called it ‘a major advance in AMOC stability science.’

‘The new study adds significantly to the rising concern about an AMOC collapse in the not too distant future,’ Rahmstorf said in an email. ‘We will ignore this at our peril.’

University of Exeter climate scientist Tim Lenton, also not part of the research, said the new study makes him more concerned about a collapse.

An AMOC collapse would cause so many ripples throughout the world’s climate that are ‘so abrupt and severe that they would be near impossible to adapt to in some locations,’ Lenton said.

There are signs showing that the AMOC has collapsed in the past, but when and how it will change in the future is still uncertain, said U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration oceanographer Wei Cheng, who wasn’t part of the research.

The AMOC is part of an intricate global conveyor belt of ocean currents that move different levels of salt and warm water around the globe at different depths in patterns that helps regulate Earth’s temperature, absorbs carbon dioxide and fuels the water cycle, according to NASA.

When the AMOC shuts down, there’s less heat exchanged across the globe and ‘it really impacts Europe quite severely,’ van Westen said.

For thousands of years, Earth’s oceans have relied on a circulation system that runs like a conveyor belt. It’s still going but slowing.

The engine of this conveyor belt is off the coast of Greenland, where, as more ice melts from climate change, more freshwater flows into the North Atlantic and slows everything down, van Westen said. In the current system, cold deeper fresher water heads south past both Americas and then east past Africa. Meanwhile saltier warmer ocean water, coming from the Pacific and Indian oceans, pushes past the southern tip of Africa, veers to and around Florida and continues up the U.S. East Coast on up to Greenland.

The Dutch team simulated 2,200 years of its flow, adding in what human-caused climate change does to it. They found after 1,750 years ‘an abrupt AMOC collapse,’ but so far are unable to translate that simulated timeline to Earth’s real future. Key to monitoring what happens is a complicated measurement of flow around the tip of Africa. The more negative that measurement, the slower AMOC runs.

‘This value is getting more negative under climate change,’ van Westen said. When it reaches a certain point it’s not a gradual stop but something that is ‘cliff-like,’ he said.

The world should pay attention to potential AMOC collapse, said Joel Hirschi, division leader at the United Kingdom’s National Oceanography Centre. But there’s a bigger global priority, he said.

‘To me, the rapidly increasing temperatures we have been witnessing in recent years and associated temperature extremes are of more immediate concern than the AMOC shutting down,’ Hirschi said. ‘The warming is not hypothetical but is already happening and impacting society now.’

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Ring in the New Year on Dubai’s waters: Abra, Taxi & Ferry with Atlantis views

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As Dubai residents and tourists gear up to celebrate New Year, they can ring in 2025 with celebrations in the waters of the emirate.

The Roads and Transport Authority in Dubai has announced special offers and exclusive services during the New Year’s Eve, December 31, 2024, on marine transport means including the Dubai Ferry, the Abra, and the Water Taxi.

Passengers can enjoy views of the Burj Khalifa, Bluewaters, Atlantis, Burj Al Arab and Jumeirah Beach Towers. Residents can cruise into 2025 aboard the Dubai Ferry, Water Taxi, and Abra, with the backdrop of the Dubai coastline, adorned with hotels, heritage areas and landmarks such as The World Islands.

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Dubai Safari to introduce extended hours for night safaris

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Timings at the Dubai Safari Park will be extended this winter season, allowing visitors to experience the attraction at night. Evening visitors will be able to observe changes in the animals’ behaviour as the night deepens. The park’s lions will roar more, the usually elusive pygmy hippos will be more active and the predatory instincts of carnivores primed for nocturnal hunting will intensify.

The night safari timings of 6pm to 8pm will be applicable for a limited period—from December 13 to January 12. Tickets will be sold on the park’s website starting from December 11.

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The extended hours will include two night safaris led by wildlife guides. Visitors can “expect to catch” a glimpse of the night-time routines of over 90 species, “besides participating in interactive activities involving animals”, the park’s operator said. The safari will host live performances, including an African fire show and a neon display. Visitors will be able to observe and study the animals’ natural adaptations at night, which include enhanced night vision, echolocation, and a heightened sense of smell and hearing.

Ahmad Al Zarouni, director of Public Parks and Recreational Facilities at Dubai Municipality, said, “With the introduction of the unique night safari, we are excited to reveal a new perspective on the world of wildlife after dark. This experience offers a rare opportunity to explore hidden aspects of life in the wild and learn about our constant efforts to enhance animal welfare, by day and by night.”

The extended timings are being offered amid the country’s peak tourist season.

According to the Dubai Safari Park, “well-considered measures” are in place to ensure that the ecosystem and animals’ natural routines remain undisturbed during the night safaris. “Only nocturnally active species will be part of the safari experience, allowing guests to observe them in their most natural state.”

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Dubai to ring in UAE National Day with week-long celebrations

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As the UAE prepares to celebrate its 53rd National Day, residents can look forward to a long weekend, with a 4-day break for most and an extended 5-day holiday for those in Sharjah.

From November 28 to December 3, Dubai will come alive with Eid Al Etihad festivities, featuring shopping deals, acrobatic performances, musical shows, fireworks, and culinary delights.

Culinary Experiences

Dubai’s restaurants and cafes will offer exclusive tasting menus, limited-time promotions, and events celebrating Emirati flavors with global twists. Emirati Eats will showcase a variety of traditional and fusion dishes at leading eateries across the city.

Music and Concerts

The festivities kick off on November 28 with Jalsat Moments at Coca-Cola Arena, featuring a stellar lineup of Arab artists, including Ayed Yousef, Eida Al Menhali, Nabeel Shuail, and Abdulaziz Al-Duwaihi.

On December 2, Dubai Festival City Mall will host a live concert by Aryam and Faisal Al Jasim, while City Walk will showcase a performance by Mohamed Al Shehhi, supported by a 10-member band, from 8 pm to 9 pm.

Fireworks

Spectacular firework displays will light up the city skies at these locations:

December 1, 8 pm: Bluewaters and The Beach, JBR

December 2, 8 pm: Hatta Sign

December 2, 9.10 pm: Dubai Festival City Mall

December 3, 9 pm: Al Seef

Shopping and Family Activities

From November 29 to December 3, shoppers can enjoy discounts on perfumes, jewelry, fashion, footwear, homeware, and apparel across the city. Traditional bands, family-friendly activities, and performances will create vibrant atmospheres at City Centre Mirdif and Ibn Battuta Mall.

Acrobatic Acts and Performances

On December 2, City Walk will host fabric dancers, acrobats, flag bearers, and traditional bands from 4 pm to 6 pm, culminating in the musical finale by Mohamed Al Shehhi.

With over 200 performers and an array of activities, Dubai is set to honor the UAE’s rich heritage and dynamic spirit with a celebration to remember.

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